Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Sara pouring on Central America

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Sara is over the Western Caribbean & near the Central American coast.

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

“Sara″

A Tropical Storm WARNING: The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border ... The Bay Islands of Honduras ... The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala ... The coast of Belize ... The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

‘99-L’ became tropical depression #19 early Thu. & was upgraded to “Sara” early Thu. afternoon over the Western Caribbean. Sara is the 18th named storm of the Atlantic season. The 30-year average for a season is 14. Very heavy rain, flooding, mudslides & gusty winds will impact parts Honduras, Guatemala & eventually Belize & the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast models continue to come into good agreement with Sara not surviving its transit over land. Where Sara & its remnants go is still to be determined both in the short term & long term due largely to (1) the land interaction & (2) strong wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong upper level trough of low pressure diving into the Central U.S. next week will help pull the upper reflection of Sara northward into the Gulf then northeast into the Southeast U.S. Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model - 4th image below - has Sara moving toward Belize Sat. The 5th forecast map is for early Tue., Nov. 19th & shows weak low pressure over the Central Gulf.

The Bottom Line:

Very heavy rain & flooding for parts of Central America & the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara weakens with only an upper level disturbance or perhaps very weak surface low emerging over the Gulf of Mexico. Re-generation is unlikely given very strong westerly shear of 40+ mph over the Gulf. The remnants + tropical moisture will merge with a strong cold front to help produce heavy rain to the Central Gulf Coast & Florida Panhandle with amounts lowering considerably to the east toward Jacksonville.

In the end... the threat for a significant tropical system impacting Florida or the Gulf Coast remains low.

Rainfall forecast:

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “rising” air (green lines) across the Atlantic Basin which equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. An upward “pulse” was centered over the Atlantic Basin which aided Rafael last week & the tail end of this pulse may help the next disturbance over the Caribbean.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Sara” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: