Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm Beryl forms & is forecast to be a hurricane soon

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None through at least the 4th of July

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) The strong tropical wave - ‘95-L’ - that moved off the coast of Africa early this week has continued steadily west & was upgraded to tropical depression #2 Friday afternoon & tropical storm “Beryl” Friday evening. Beryl is forecast to become a Cat. 2 over the Central Caribbean while turning more northwest with time... & is expected to be a hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles Monday. Obviously... folks living in or traveling to the Caribbean should stay up to date on this developing situation. No impact to Jacksonville or Florida it would appear though the storm is expected to weaken some later next week over the Western or Northwest Caribbean in an environment that *appears right now* to be less favorable + there may be some land interaction. The GFS model is faster to weaken the storm in the long range while the European & Canadian models are stronger longer & therefore take Beryl more westward with an eventual possible impact on Central America though the European has trended a little more north recently.

An upper level high remains strong & generally in control from the Southern U.S. eastward across much of the Atlantic. This feature will be the main steering current maintaining the steady west/northwest track through early to the middle part of next week. It’s when & if the ridge weakens some or splits or contracts that would allow “Beryl” to gain more latitude. Continue to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.

Of note:

Dr. Rick Knabb, former director of the NHC makes a really good point that I recall vividly: “Don’t be surprised if there are large intensity forecast errors for TD 2. Dennis in early July 2005 was an outlier major in an outlier year, and intensity forecasts were way too low. Here’s hoping 20 years of advancements helps us do better, and that if we’re off we’re too high.”

And Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

(2) Tropical wave - ‘94-L’ over the Western Caribbean is moving over land - the Yucatan Peninsula - into Saturday so no short term development is likely. The wave will then re-emerge over the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico) by late Saturday/Sat. night at which point the wave will have about 24 - 32 hours to try to organize & intensify. That short window may be enough for a tropical depression or storm to form before reaching the Mexico coastline south of Texas. No impacts to Jacksonville or any of Florida.

(3) Another tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa with at least some chance for development while moving west or W/NW across the Atlantic next week & beyond. This wave could take a track that’s at least a little more north of 95-L.

“Buresh Bottom Line”: Beryl impacts the Caribbean next week... as early as Monday for some parts of the Lesser Antilles & is forecast to already be a hurricane. The Western Caribbean wave - ‘94-L’ - will bring some heavy rain & gusty winds to Central America & Mexico through the weekend. Time will tell as to whether or not the wave has enough time to organize & strengthen over the Bay of Campeche Sat. night into Sunday. The third wave may end up farther north than its two predecessors but may also have to battle increasing wind shear. Stay up to date on the latest forecasts....

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Beryl” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

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